Jordan will build a USD 140 mn solar cell production plant in Amman

Good morning, friends. We have a hefty issue with climate updates from around the region, cutting across all parts of the industry, but first …

Behold, we now have an International Day of Clean Energy: The UN General Assembly (UNGA) has adopted a resolution declaring 26 January as International Day of Clean Energy to coincide with the founding date of the International Renewable Energy Agency (Irena), according to a statement released on Thursday. “By selecting the 26th January, the 193 Member States of the UNGA acknowledge Irena’s leading role in accelerating the global, renewables-based energy transition,” the statement read.

OUR TOP STORIES TODAY- Jordan will invest JOD 100 mn (c. USD 140.9 mn) to build a solar cell production plant in Amman and the first phase of Iran’s state-owned USD 1 bn Mehdiabad lead, zinc and barite mine complex is nearing completion.

^^ We have all the details on these stories and much more in the news well, below.

THE BIG CLIMATE STORY OUTSIDE THE REGION- No single climate story is dominating international headlines this morning, but Japan Fukushima’s radioactive water disposal continued to catch ink over the weekend. Seawater tests from 11 points near Fukushima nuclear power plant have not detected on Sunday any radioactivity a few days after authorities began disposing treated water from the tsunami-hit Fukushima into the Pacific Ocean. The samples showed concentrations of tritium below the lower limit of detection, the country’s Environment Ministry said, stressing that it “would have no adverse impact on human health and the environment”. Last week’s disposal has been condemned by several nations, including China which described the move as “extremely selfish” and placed import controls on Japanese seafood.

The story grabbed headlines during the weekend: Reuters | Bloomberg | The Financial Times | The Guardian | BBC | The New York Times | The Washington Post

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OVER AT COPLAND- Meet the EU’s temporary new climate heavyweight: The European Commission Vice President Maros Sefcovic was named the EU’s temporary climate chief after long-time climate head Frans Timmermans quit the post to run as a candidate in the Dutch national elections, according to a statement released last week. The Slovakian EU official will be temporarily appointed as climate lead until the appointment of a new member of the commission of Dutch nationality, according to the statement. “Following a successful legislation phase, the focus of Executive Vice-President Sefcovic will be the successful roll-out of the European Green Deal as Europe’s growth strategy,” EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said. Sefcovic currently governs the bloc’s ties with Britain and its joint-gas buying programme to wean off Russian gas supplies after being in charge of the EU’s energy policy.

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WATCH THIS SPACE #1- A renewed effort to break the GERD deadlock: Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan have resumed negotiations on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) after a two-year hiatus, according to a statement. The new Cairo-hosted round of talks come a few weeks after Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El Sisi and Ethiopian PM Abiy Ahmed said they aim to finalize an agreement on the dam within the next four months.

REFRESHER- The three countries have failed during years-long negotiations to reach a consensus on how to share the Nile’s water. Cairo fears the dam presents an existential threat to its water security as Ethiopia continues to unilaterally fill the reservoir without a binding agreement. The unilateral filling pushed Cairo to withdraw in 2021 from African Union-led negotiations.

No alternative to a legally binding agreement: Egypt’s Water Resources and Irrigation Minister Hani Sewilam stressed the necessity of reaching a legally binding agreement on the operations and filling of the dam, according to the statement. He stressed the importance of suspending “any unilateral steps” regarding the dam, and that the unilateral filling of the reservoir is a violation of a Declaration of Principles signed between the three countries in 2015. He said that there are many technical and legal solutions that can meet the interests of the three countries, without providing further details.

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WATCH THIS SPACE #2- India’s Hinduja Group is set to sign a final agreement with Egypt to support local EV manufacturing in the country by the end of 4Q 2023, an informed source at Egypt’s Trade and Industry Ministry’s Trade Representation told Enterprise Climate. Hinduja will pour USD 500 mn as a potential investor Egypt’s state-owned El Nasr Automotive Manufacturing Company under a bid to manufacture EVs in the country and turn Egypt into a regional hub for EVs manufacturing, the source said, adding that some legal procedures were currently being finalized ahead of signing the contract.

We saw this coming: Representatives from Hinduja visited Egypt in May for talks with Egyptian officials on a project to manufacture electric vehicles and spare parts. The company was exploring the possibility of establishing a factory in Egypt to serve as a manufacturing and export hub in the Middle East and Africa, CEO Amandeep Singh said at the time. Earlier in May, Hinduja’s commercial vehicle maker Ashok Leyland expressed interest in cooperating with Egypt’s state-owned El Nasr Automotive Manufacturing Company to manufacture commercial EVs in Egypt.

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WATCH THIS SPACE #3- Aramco in hot water over climate-tied investigation: Saudi Arabia’s oil giant Aramco is being investigated by the UN on grounds that its fossil fuel production expansion and exploration is putting human rights at risk, Reuters reported on Friday. In a letter to Aramco CEO Amin Nasser, four UN individual experts and a working group expressed concerns over “adverse impacts on human rights” caused by Aramco’s expansion of fossil fuels production and the resulting effects on climate change. They also raised worries that the Saudi company’s moves may weaken the 2015 Paris Agreement and international cooperation efforts. Similar letters were also sent to the Saudi government and several countries and banks in which Aramco operates.

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DATA POINT- Oman has taken the number one spot for highest solar capacity pipeline in the region, Oman Observer reports, citing recent data released by the Global Solar Power Tracker. Oman ranked 11th worldwide with a prospective capacity of some 18.4 GW, accounting for almost 1.6% of the world’s capacity. The tracker considered solar projects with capacities of 20 MW or higher, and that are in different phases of development, including construction, pre-construction, and those that have only recently been announced.

REMEMBER- Oman’s Nama Power and Water Procurement recently announced its 7-year energy strategy, which included a plan to issue requests for qualification for three new mega solar projects. The plants are planned for commissioning in 2029.

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NON-CLIMATE REGIONAL HEADLINES OVER THE WEEKEND:

• KSA: Saudi Telecom Company (STC) subsidiary Tawal has raised USD 1.42 bn in Islamic financing to fund the acquisition of Netherland-based United Group’s telecommunications tower assets in Bulgaria, Croatia and Slovenia under its first foray to Europe. (Asharq Al Awsat)

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CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

The Dominican Republic will host the COP27 Transitional Committee from Tuesday, 29 August to Friday, 1 September. The meeting aims to establish institutional arrangements, modalities, governance structures, and terms of reference for the landmark Loss and Damage Fund. It also wants to expand sources for climate funding under the program.

Saudi Arabia will host the Sustainable Maritime Industry Conference from Monday, 4 September to Wednesday, 6 September in Jeddah. Organized by KSA’s Transport and Logistic Services Ministry, the event will feature over 50 speakers to spotlight sustainability, new technologies, and digitization efforts in the maritime industry. Speakers will include International Maritime Organization Secretary General Kitack Lim and World Ocean Council CEO Paul Holthus.

Kenya will host the Africa Climate Summit from Monday, 4 September to Wednesday, 6 September in Nairobi. The event will bring together government leaders and investors to share pathways to increasing Africa’s climate resilience and serve as a platform to inform and frame commitments, pledges, and outcomes, ultimately leading to the development of the Nairobi Declaration on Climatic Change.

India will host the G20 Heads of State and Government Summit from Saturday, 9 September to Sunday, 10 September in New Delhi. A G20 Leaders’ Declaration will be adopted at the conclusion of the summit, stating commitment towards priorities discussed and agreed upon during previous ministerial and working group meetings through the year, the organizers note. The last meeting of G20 energy ministers in July failed to reach consensus on a fossil fuel phasedown as several major producing nations, led by Saudi Arabia, blocked the move. Among other expected announcements, the Global Biofuels Alliance is scheduled to be launched at the summit.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

Jordan will invest JOD 100 mn (c. USD 140.9 mn) to build a solar cell production plant in Amman, Petra News Agency reported on Saturday. Construction on the 130k square meters factory is expected to break ground by the end of the year. The government did not specify the developers of the project or the expected launch date for the plant.

Supporting big renewables targets: Solar and wind currently make up more than 20% of Jordan’s national electricity capacity. The country is expected to bring up its solar energy capacity to 2.7 GW this year from 1.7 GW in 2020. Jordan wants to have renewables account for half of its energy mix by 2030 in a bid to wean itself off fuel imports and push down carbon emissions. The country aims to slash 31% of its carbon output by 2030 compared to 2012 levels, according to its latest Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC).

And has new clean energy strategies incoming: The government plans to launch its long-term energy strategy in 2024, with incentives geared at boosting renewable energy, power storage, and green hydrogen production. The kingdom is also expected to announce its green hydrogen strategy this quarter, Assistant Secretary-General of the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry Hassan Al-Hayari said in June.

The first phase of Iran’s state-owned USD 1 bn Mehdiabad lead, zinc and barite mine complex is in its final stages of construction, Tasnim News Agency reported on Saturday. The mine will produce 800k tons of zinc concentrate and 80k tons of lead-silver concentrate — two crucial components needed in battery manufacturing. The first phase cost USD 300 mn and a scheduled date for operational launch was not disclosed.

About the complex: The complex is home to 700 mn tons of lead and zinc reserves, about 170 mn tons of which are extractable, making it the second largest reserve in the world and the ​​largest lead and zinc processing factory in the region, the news outlet said, citing mine director Hamid Hemayat.

The complex will be getting its water from the Yazd Wastewater Treatment Plant: Iran’s largest wastewater conveyance project will supply water to the Mehdiabad plant through a 100 km pipeline from Yazd Wastewater Treatment Plant, Hemayat told the news outlet.

REMEMBER- Zinc and lead are critical minerals for the energy transition: While commercial EV batteries are lithium based, research has recently been taking place into redox flow batteries, of which zinc-bromide is a component. Compared to lithium-ion batteries, zinc-based batteries have low flammability and high energy densities (i.e longer runtime), according to Australia’s geoscience agency. Those advantages have led to the development of zinc-air, zinc-nickel, zinc-silver, zinc-water, and zinc-gel batteries. Disadvantages of zinc batteries include difficulties in recharging, high costs, and lower power output (zinc-gel). 80% of global lead demand comes from EV battery manufacturing.

IN OTHER MINING NEWS- A nickel mine in Oman could be among the world’s largest: The Omani nickel-laterite mine recently awarded to UK-based strategic minerals miner Knights Bay for development could be among the world’s largest, Oman Daily Observer reported last week. Covering an area of 1.4k square kilometers in the Wilayat of Ibra in North Al Sharqiyah governorate, the mine reportedly holds deposits of other strategic minerals including cobalt, chrome, and iron ore. Knights Bay is planning a full production capacity of 200k tons per annum beginning from 2030 and is in talks with several investors to fund the rest of the project to the tune of around USD 5.5 bn, Director of Investor Relations Max Beck told the news outlet.

A Chinese bid for nuclear power in Saudi Arabia? Saudi Arabia is examining a Chinese offer to set up a two-reactor 2.8 GW nuclear power plant in the country, The Wall Street Journal reported on Friday, citing Saudi officials with knowledge of the matter. The move is an attempt by Riyadh to pressure the Biden administration to ease its conditions for assisting the Gulf country in its nuclear energy ambitions, the sources said. The talks come under a plan by Saudi Arabia to award a contract for the facility by the end of the year and a longer term plan to build 16 reactors at an estimated cost of USD 80 bn to USD 100 bn by 2030.

What we know: The bid was submitted by state-owned company China National Nuclear Corp (CNNC) to set up a nuclear facility in the country’s Eastern Province bordering Qatar and the UAE, the sources said. CNNC’s offer is at least 20% less expensive than bids by South Korea’s Kepco and France’s EDF, the officials said. The sources added that KSA would prefer to hire Kepco and involve US operational expertise, but without consenting to the proliferation requirements that Washington demands.

Proliferation requirements? The US wants to ensure that Saudi Arabia does not enrich its own uranium or mine its own uranium deposits in a way to develop nuclear weapons under its nonproliferation conditions. Talks on the two countries have stalled in recent years after they failed to resolve disagreements on Riyadh agreeing to enrichment and reprocessing restrictions and signing an additional protocol by the International Atomic Energy Agency that would allow the UN nuclear watchdog to have access to Saudi Arabia’s nuclear activities.

The kingdom wants the upper hand: The Saudi officials said Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman could move forward with CNNC soon if discussions with the US on civil nuclear cooperation falter. Analysts believe the lack of nonproliferation requirements by China could make the country a more advantageous partner to Riyadh.

Why are the Saudis so keen on developing nuclear power? The nuclear plants could help provide emissions-free energy for the Saudi population and slash dependency on oil to give room for crude exports, the sources said. KSA is also concerned about Iran’s nuclear enrichment, with the Saudi crown prince threatening to develop nuclear weapons if Tehran does, they added.

Masdar and ZeroAvia partner on hydrogen production for aircrafts: UAE renewables giant Masdar inked an agreement with California-based hydrogen-electric aircraft developer ZeroAvia to explore hydrogen production and supply projects for aircrafts, according to a statement released last week. Under the agreement, ZeroAvia will refuel its zero-emission aircrafts at commercial airports by 2030, with plans for a first hydrogen-fueled commercial flight by 2025. The firms will initially target North America and Europe for clean flight operations, with plans to later expand operations in the UAE, the statement notes.

ZeroAvia is on its way: The company completed the flight testing campaign for its initial prototype ZA600 — a 500-750 KW hydrogen-electric plane which has a 300 nautical mile (555 kilometers) flight range — last January. Over the past seven months, ZeroAvia has sequentially tested different areas of performance, seeing their aircraft cruising at a 5k foot altitude and completing an endurance test at 23 minutes. The company — which has secured 2k orders for its engines with potential revenues of up to USD 10 bn— is targeting an up to 700-mile range in 40-80 seat aircrafts by 2027. ZeroAvia’s planes consume up to one ton of hydrogen on short flights, and “even a small commercial airport can drive more than a hundred tons of demand daily,” the statement notes.

Part of a wider Emirati green hydrogen strategy: The UAE government has set a target to produce 1.4 mn tons of hydrogen annually by 2031 before increasing its production capacity tenfold to between 14 and 22 mn tons by 2050. State-owned Masdar is eyeing an annual 1 mn ton green hydrogen production volume by the end of the decade.

Masdar is also making moves on SAF: Masdar recently signed an agreement with French aerospace company Airbus to jointly develop sustainable aviation fuels (SAF), green hydrogen, and direct air capture technologies. The agreement also sees the companies launching a book and claims framework that would enable aircraft operators to source their SAF supplies without being geographically connected to a stockpile site. Masdar — along with Adnoc, Emirates Airways, and Tadweer — is also looking to establish MENA’s first commercial-scale SAF production facility in Abu Dhabi. The companies are conducting the feasibility study for the project with BP.

IN OTHER MASDAR NEWS– Masdar has rolled out its sustainability podcast — Future Energy Talks — with Reuters’ creative studio Reuters Plus, the company said on Thursday. The production will explore “everything from green hydrogen to AI with the industry leaders and sustainability experts driving the clean energy transition.”

Regional entry to Brics could see increased green economy agreements: Egypt, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Iran were among the six countries invited to join the bloc of emerging economies known as the Brics during the organization’s annual summit in South Africa last week. Capping three days of talks, the leaders of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa announced an agreement on a framework for expanding the bloc and said six new members would join in 2024. The agreement should increase foreign direct investments and facilitate trade exchange through incentive packages, which is expected to bring significant green agreements, especially as the Brics countries recently made strides to ramp up their green sectors, the Washington Post writes.

Access to the New Development Bank: Joining the Brics would allow the four countries access to the USD 100 bn pool of foreign currency the group uses to lend each other funds during emergencies. The World Bank-inspired New Development Bank (NDB) has approved nearly USD 33 bn in loans for water, transport, and other infrastructure projects since it began operations in 2015, the news outlet added. Egypt joined NDB last April, allowing the country to access finance from the bank for development projects.

More foreign direct investments: The four countries' entrance into the Brics signals their large economic potential and further integration within the global financial system, which will likely attract inflows from both member and non-member countries. Annual foreign direct inflows to the bloc more than quadrupled from 2001 to 2021 and contributed significantly to gross fixed capital formation, according to the UN.

The ball is already rolling: Brazil and Saudi Arabia signed 25 MoUs during the Brazilian-Saudi Investment Forum earlier this month to boost bilateral cooperation in desalination, water treatment, and agriculture. The UAE joined the bloc’s multilateral Shanghai-based development bank in 2021 and invested in infrastructure, food security, clean energy, transportation, and industry. In May, Brazilian mining firm Vale signed an agreement with the UAE’s AD Ports Group to develop a mega steelmaking hub to source materials essential to low-carbon steel production in the UAE. China’s LONGi is looking to unlock investments in Egypt’s solar energy and green hydrogen production sectors.

Trade in key materials for green manufacturing likely to get a boost: Trade between the bloc’s five existing members surged 56% to USD 422 bn over the five years from 2017 through 2022, WaPo writes. The four countries have already established trade exchanges with Brics members in materials needed for green projects such as importing solar panels from China. The region saw an increase of more than 200% in PV module imports from China in the first two months of this year, with the UAE and Saudi Arabia accounting for 62% of the region's overall market.

And low-carbon fertilizers: Saudi Arabia’s Ma’aden signed an agreement with Indian agricultural chemicals maker Coromandel International in May to supply low-carbon blue ammonia. The agreement came after its first shipments of low-carbon blue ammonia to Chinese petrochemical producer Shenghong Petrochemicals as part of an agreement to supply 25k tons of blue ammonia.

It's not a one-way street: The closer cooperation between the Brics and the new members could see increased foreign acquisitions by regional players. Last month, Saudi Arabia’s Manara acquired a 10% stake in Brazilian miner Vale’s base metals unit at an enterprise value of USD 26 bn. Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala Capital-backed Acelen will invest up to USD 2.4 bn over the next 10 years to produce green diesel and sustainable aviation fuel in Brazil. Dubai-based green mobility company NWTN Motors acquired a 27.5% stake in EV manufacturer China Evergrande New Energy Vehicle Group (EVGRF). UAE’s Amea Power will build a USD 120 mn, 120 MW solar energy plant in South Africa.

Agreements on climate policy aren’t a strong suit: Divergent interests and stances on political and security issues have made it difficult for Brics to agree on how to tackle climate change, but critical decisions have shifted towards supporting renewables activities and more efficient energy use in the developing world, the independent journalism organization Dialogo China writes. The group holds gatherings of energy ministers and other high-level energy officials and established the Brics Energy Research Platform in 2018, the paper added.

Oman + S. Korea bolster cooperation in green energy: Oman’s Energy and Minerals Ministry has signed an MoU with South Korea’s Environment Ministry to strengthen and develop bilateral cooperation in the green transition, ONA reports. The MoU aims to encourage the two countries to cooperate in green transition programs and policies and environmentally sustainable techniques in the production, storage, distribution, and use of green energy. It also aims to build capacity in industries that help contribute to the green transition and other aspects of cooperation.

REMEMBER- A consortium led by South Korea’s steelmaking company Posco Group was awarded in June a USD 6.7 bn contract to set up what it described as the world’s largest green hydrogen plant in Oman’s Duqm. The project comes under Oman’s plan to become a green hydrogen hub, with a recent IEA report (pdf) saying that the Gulf country is on track to become the sixth-largest exporter of hydrogen globally. Meeting Oman’s target of producing 1 mn tons of low-carbon hydrogen annually by 2030 will require a 50 TWh increase in renewable power, which is more than the current size of the country’s entire electricity system.

IN OTHER DIPLO NEWS– South Korea is pushing with efforts to sign free trade agreements with seven emerging markets including Morocco, Yonhap News Agency reported on Friday, citing the country’s Trade, Industry, and Energy Ministry. It is working to sign a bilateral Economic Partnership Agreement with Kenya, Tanzania, Morocco, Thailand, Pakistan, Serbia, and the Dominican Republic. "The seven nations bear high growth potential and have ample room for mutually beneficial cooperation with South Korea," said Seoul's Deputy Minister for Trade Negotiations Roh Keon-ki.

Green bond bonanza in Singapore: The city-state of Singapore raised SGD 2.8 bn (USD 2.1 bn) from green bonds issuances by reopening an existing 50-year maiden note it sold last year, surpassing a target of SGD 1.8 bn, Bloomberg reported on Thursday. While the majority of the funds raised came from institutions, SGD 50 mn was made through a public offering, the business news information service said citing a source with knowledge of the matter. The country’s new round of green financing pushes the total amount of global issuances of green bonds to over USD 344 bn in 2023, 18% higher than last year, Bloomberg-compiled data showed. Singapore plans to raise as much as SGD 35 bn of environment-focused financing by 2030.

Indonesia issues rules for carbon market set to launch next month: Indonesia’s carbon market exchange will allow cross-border trade, use certificates that show the volume of greenhouse gas emission reduction per ton of CO2, and allow 20% of the operator’s shares to be owned by an overseas firm, new regulations issued by Indonesia’s Financial Services Authority revealed, Reuters reported last week. A number of companies have shown interest in taking on operations, but no decision has been made yet, the authority said. The carbon trading platform is planned to launch in September, according to the regulator. The trading will use a cap-and-trade system where the volume of permitted emissions is limited and allowances can be traded by businesses.

Indonesia is making strides in green policy: A final plan for Indonesia’s USD 20 bn climate package could be in place by the end of October, Bloomberg reported last week, quoting the head of the coordinating body for the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) Edo Mahendra. Indonesia initiated the partnership last year with a group of wealthy nations — including EU countries, the US, and Japan — and a coalition of global financial institutions. The benchmark JETP program will provide incentivized financing to help speed up Indonesia’s transition toward renewable energy and away from coal.

IN OTHER INDONESIAN NEWS- The country’s tropical glaciers may vanish: Two of the world's few tropical glaciers — ice caps located high in the equatorial mountain ranges that serve as a major water source for some communities — in Indonesia are melting and their ice is under threat to vanish by 2026 or sooner, Reuters reported last week. The start of the El Niño phenomenon this year could make Indonesia’s dry season the most severe since 2019, putting the country’s 12k-year-old tropical glaciers in danger.

OTHER STORIES WORTH KNOWING ABOUT THIS MORNING-

• India is prioritizing green mobility: India’s finance ministry is considering a proposal to include electric vehicles in the national priority sector for loans, making it cheaper to raise funds. (Reuters)
• China team up with Namibia in clean energy: China’s President Xi Jinping is looking to expand cooperation with Namibia and encourage Chinese businesses to invest in the country’s clean energy sector (Xinhua)
• Falling solar and wind prices threaten Africa’s hydropower: 67% of Africa’s future hydropower plants on the continent may not be worth the investment as price tags for solar and wind energy components continue to drop, rendering hydroelectric less attractive. Mitigation efforts to offset the impact of prolonged droughts on the back of climate change are also driving up hydropower project costs. (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)
• Japan is localizing supply chains for green hydrogen: Japan is planning to spend over JBY 2 tn (c. USD 14 bn) to advance the local manufacturing of batteries, semiconductors, and equipment needed to produce hydrogen under a plan to cut dependency on global suppliers. (Reuters)

Morocco’s Ermazon begins local manganese mining operations: Morocco-based mining company Ermazon SARL — a subsidiary of Canada’s Elcora Advanced Materials — kicked off manganese ore extraction and deliveries after securing future orders for its offerings, according to a statement released last week. The company plans to expand mining operations in the kingdom through new projects and racked in revenues for 2Q 2023, signifying a swift return on investment, Morocco World News reports. Manganese is an essential component of EV batteries and a key input in green tech. The Moroccan government granted Elcora a license to extract and process manganese in a 16 sq km mining concession last March.

Not Elcora’s first Moroccan venture: The company tapped mining tech solutions firm Lab 4 for the design and testing of its planned vanadium pentoxide plant in Morocco last April. Elcora’s Ermazon Vanadium Project aims to use extracted vanadium to produce vanadium pentoxide, an industrial chemical used as a catalyst in the production of redox flow batteries, a type of battery that is being studied and deployed globally for large-scale grid storage projects.

OTHER STORIES WORTH KNOWING ABOUT THIS MORNING-

• It’s a kickoff for TotalEnergies in Iraq: French oil giant TotalEnergies has activated its USD 27 bn cluster of energy projects—which includes oil, gas, renewable energy and seawater projects—in Iraq. (Iraq News Agency)

A strange silver lining to natural disasters: 20% of global heating has been offset by the cooling effects from volcanic eruptions and wildfires since 2015, The Guardian reported last week, citing a study (pdf) published by Jinan University in China. The smoke and gas emitted into the high atmosphere from these events in the last eight years have absorbed heat leaving the Earth and reflected sunlight back to space, the news outlet explains. The greater than average amount of cooling in recent years is due to more low-latitude events — compared to events closer to the poles — where the smoke and gas is transported quickly around the globe by high-level winds and remains suspended for longer. The eruptions in southern Chile in 2015 and the 2019/20 Australian wildfires were the largest contributors to this phenomenon, according to the study.

But we can’t rely on the phenomenon: The rapid increase in greenhouse-gas warming means that the cooling effect from wildfires and volcanic eruptions are diminishing and cannot be relied on to offset global heating in the coming decades, the study concluded.