SMART POLICY- The UAE has raised its 2030 carbon emission target in response to the call at last year’s COP26 summit for countries to get more ambitious with their climate goals. In an updated set of nationally determined contributions (NDCs), the country has pledged to slash CO2 emissions by 31% by the end of the decade, compared to its previous commitment to a 23.5% reduction, the Climate Change and Environment Ministry said yesterday.

The small print: We’re not talking about reducing emissions from current levels here, but rather a hypothetical “business as usual” estimate of where emissions are expected to be by 2030 if no action is taken. In this scenario, the UAE’s emissions are forecast to rise to 301 mn metric tons by the end of the decade, assuming moderate economic growth. What the ministry committed to yesterday was to reduce this figure by 31% (or around 93.2 mn tons).

In perspective: Meeting these targets would mean that emissions in 2030 would still remain above where they were in 2020, when the country produced 203.14 mn metric tons of CO2.

Where the cuts are coming from: Almost two-thirds of the reduction will come from the electricity sector, while c. 17% will come from industry and just under 10% from transportation. The government’s hope is that carbon capture technology will reduce carbon emissions by 5%, while the waste management sector will be responsible for 2% of reductions.

The UAE wants the private sector on board: In May, the Climate Change Ministry began engaging with private sector players in key sectors on how they will need to contribute to the country reaching net zero by 2050. The National Dialogue for Climate Ambition is organizing monthly meetings with stakeholders from different sectors to communicate the government’s requirements and set priorities.

Expect tighter targets as we near COP28: “With the submission of the updated second NDC, we are demonstrating our commitment to progressively raising our ambition further each year as new solutions and initiatives become available,” Climate Change and Environment Minister Mariam Almheiri said in the statement. “As the host of COP28, the UAE will continue building on its climate ambition towards 2023 and beyond,” she added.

We spoke with Almheiri in our first issue of Enterprise Climate.