Good morning, friends. It’s another compact, albeit interesting and varied issue this morning, with more big news coming out of Abu Dhabi and KSA.

THE BIG CLIMATE STORY- Abu Dhabi’s renewables giant Masdar is planning to purchase a 49% stake in Spanish utility company Iberdrola’s largest offshore wind project off Britain’s eastern coast for EUR 2 bn (USD 2.1 bn).

HAPPENING TODAY- The International Fair of Energy Transition is kicking off today in Tunis and running through to Friday. The event will gather global stakeholders in the energy sector and to discuss financing the energy transition and the challenges sectors face working in renewables, energy efficiency and storage, and electric mobility.

THE BIG CLIMATE STORY OUTSIDE THE REGION- IEA says the transition to clean energy is “unstoppable” and means oil demand will peak this decade: Global demand for oil, coal, and natural gas will peak this decade as the shift towards renewables and electric vehicles helps wean the world off fossil fuels, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its annual World Energy Outlook report (pdf). The IEA expects global oil demand to peak at around 102 mn barrels per day (bbl / d) in the late 2020s, before dropping to 97 mn bbl / d by 2050 if governments maintain their current energy policies. The agency sees that figure dropping to 93 mn bbl / d in 2030 if governments commit to their national energy and climate targets and to 77 mn bbl / d if they carry out further policy changes to reach net zero by 2050. “The transition to clean energy is happening worldwide and it’s unstoppable. It’s not a question of if, it’s just a matter of how soon,” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said in a statement accompanying the report.

This may be too optimistic of an outlook: The IEA’s optimistic outlook comes shortly after OPEC published its 2023 World Oil Outlook (pdf), where it upped its long-term oil demand outlook to 116 mn bbl / d by 2045, a 5% jump from its 2022 forecast. The figure has “potential to be even higher,” the alliance of oil producers said. Chevron CEO Mike Wirth told the Financial Times that the IEA’s forecast is not even “remotely right.”

The oil sector didn’t get the memo: Oil companies are racing to secure large-scale mergers and acquisitions as they rush to add more reserves to their portfolios and capitalize on surging oil demand, the Financial Times writes. The trend kicked off with Exxon Mobil announcing its plan to acquire US shale producer Pioneer Natural Resources for USD 59.5 bn, which was shortly followed by US oil giant Chevron unveiling that it will acquire rival Hess in a USD 53 bn transaction. Now analysts believe that global energy giant BP could be joining forces with Shell and that further M&As between large US producers and their smaller rivals could soon follow. KSA Oil Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman reaffirmed big oil’s forecast on the role fossil fuels will continue to play in coming years, stating during the Future investment Initiative Conference in Riyadh earlier this week that recent oil mega deals show “hydrocarbons are here to stay.” Back in July, a meeting of G20 energy ministers at the Energy Transitions Ministerial Meeting in India failed to reach consensus on a fossil fuel phasedown as several major fossil fuel producers led by Saudi Arabia and Russia blocked the move. Western nations including the EU remain divided on how hard to push for a global agreement to fully phase-out fossil fuels at COP28.

The IEA’s report grabbed headlines in the international press yesterday: New York Times | BBC | Reuters | The Wall Street Journal | Bloomberg | Financial Times | CNBC | CNN | NPR | Deutsche Welle

WATCH THIS SPACE- Saudi Arabia is committed to investing hundreds of mns of USD to transition to green energy by 2030, KSA renewable energy giant Acwa Power’s CEO Marco Arcelli tells Bloomberg. The Saudi developer says the kingdom will need to channel the investments to increase its clean energy production capacity from wind and solar to 80 GW by 2030, and will earmark a portion of the financing to establish electricity power stations with a 60 GW capacity to ready its infrastructure for the influx of power, Arcelli said. The Public Investment Fund, the country’s sovereign wealth fund and a majority shareholder in Acwa, has committed to financing 70% of KSA’s previous 58.5 GW renewables target for 2030, and has tasked Acwa with developing 70% of the new planned 80 GW clean energy assets, Arcelli noted. Acwa also announced plans to expand its battery energy capacity in the kingdom to capitalize on its solar energy capacity after its BESS projects proved successful in Morocco and South Africa, Asharq notes.

Expansion plans in the works: Acwa plans to further expand its operations in KSA beyond Neom’s USD 8.4 bn green hydrogen plant — in which it holds a 33.3% stake — and Arcelli notes that the company is currently looking to expand its foothold in the Central Asian and Chinese markets. Last week, Acwa Power signed seven cooperation agreements for solar, green hydrogen, and water desalination projects with Chinese firms during the third Belt and Road Forum in Beijing. In Central Asia, the company achieved financial close for three projects in Uzbekistan this year, including its USD 690 mn 500 MW Bash wind plant, the USD 658 mn 500 MW Dzhankeldy wind farm, and the USD 120 mn for the 100 MW Karatau wind farm.

WATCH THIS SPACE- Algeria + Germany discuss converting existing natural gas pipeline to deliver green hydrogen instead: Algeria is in talks with Germany to convert an Algeria-EU natural gas pipeline to a green hydrogen corridor instead to eventually export from the North African country, Asharq Business reported, citing a ministry statement published on the sidelines of a meeting between officials from both countries. Germany hopes to cover 10% of its green hydrogen demands from Algerian exports, in a setup similar to the H2Med pipeline project — a subsea hydrogen pipeline project that is being jointly developed by France, Spain, and Portugal by 2030. Germany also plans to modernize and expand the gas pipelines through Tunisia, Italy, and Austria so that it is able to trade and import green hydrogen to southern Germany. The statement did not provide a cost or timeline for the project. Germany is set to become Europe's largest importer of hydrogen, sourcing up to 70% from abroad by the end of the decade.

REMEMBER- Spain had recently changed its plan to connect the Medgaz — a submarine natural gas pipeline between Algeria and Spain — and chose to shift focus to H2Med, axing Algeria from the potential agreement, which would have seen Spain import green hydrogen from Algeria in 2040. At the same time, Germany said that it may join the H2Med green hydrogen corridor, which — once operational in 2030 — will supply an estimated 2 mn metric tons of the green fuel (c.10% of the EU’s hydrogen demand).

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CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

Cairo Water Week is taking place from Sunday, 29 October to Thursday, 2 November. This year’s event will focus on global green developments in the water sector with sessions discussing the development of scientific solutions, practical tools, policies, and concrete measures to overcome today’s water challenges. The five-day event is organized by Egypt’s Water Resources and Irrigation Ministry, in partnership with the EU and FAO.

India will host the International Solar Alliance from Monday, 30 October to Thursday, 2 November in New Delhi. Some 96 member countries will participate and discuss mobilizing funds to accelerate solar deployments, the universalization of energy access through solar mini-grids, and diversifying manufacturing and supply chains for solar energy production.

The UAE will host the Forbes Middle East Sustainability Leaders Summit from Wednesday, 1 November to Saturday, 3 November in Abu Dhabi. The summit will gather international leaders in sustainability, technology, finance, and policy to drive green strategies globally. The agenda includes sessions on climate-smart cities, green mobility, sustainable finance, and sustainable tourism. The summit is expected to set the tone for international and regional dialogue and decision-making, including COP28 which will kick off in late November.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.