Winter evenings are about to get sad: The scant precipitation levels and dry conditions associated with the El Niño weather phenomenon, coupled with the effects of climate change, threaten the productivity of the world’s major cocoa production centers and will likely drive cocoa producers to seek green pastures in higher altitude regions, CNBC writes. El Niño is expected to last through to March 2024 with a 71% chance of intensification from November to January and the impact climate change is having on agricultural output is already sending cocoa price tags to their highest levels in 50 years.

Driving cocoa farmers to higher altitudes: Rising temperatures and an intensified El Niño cyclical pattern will render cocoa farmlands infertile by 2050 and force farmers to seek out more arable lands uphill, “or some may decide to leave cocoa cultivation altogether,” according to research by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The farmland suitable for cacao trees in the world’s largest production regions of Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana is expected to rise uphill to between 450–500 meters above sea level from the current optimal cultivation levels of 100–250 meters, according to the report.

Mitigation efforts will have to be boosted: Climate mitigation efforts will have to triple by 2030 and quadruple by 2050 to mitigate the impact El Niño on cocoa production centers, translating to a cumulative investment of up to USD 8.1 tn by mid-century, Kerry Daroci, the cocoa sector lead at the Rainforest Alliance, told CNBC, citing research by the United Nations Environment Programme.