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Tuesday, 12 September 2023

The global heat pump supply needs to triple to reach net zero emissions by 2030

Energy efficient heating technologies are crucial for the energy transition: An often overlooked necessity for a successful global energy transition involves replacing gas-powered heating systems with its more energy efficient alternative — heat pumps. To achieve net zero emissions by mid-century, the global heat pump supply would need to almost triple by 2030, to cover at least 20% of global heating needs compared to the current 10%, the International Energy Agency (IEA) found, adding that an additional USD 15  bn in investments would be required globally to reach that goal. Current heat pumping models are 3-5x more energy efficient than the more commercialized gas boilers, prompting several countries to roll-out policy supporting the critical heat decarbonization technology. In 2022, Europe and the US hit record growth in heat pump sales, and this year is also showing early signs of continued growth, with Germany for example witnessing over 100% growth, the IEA notes.

Heat pumps cool too: Heat pumps are devices that use electricity to move heat from one place to another, meaning they can both pull heat from the outside to warm a building, or push it out to cool the building, the International Renewables Energy Agency (Irena) explains. Similar to the mechanics of an air conditioner (AC), heat pumps use refrigerant to pump hot air from inside a house to the outside, with the difference of having a reversing valve that switches the system from cooling to heating when temperatures drop. Heating and cooling together accounts for about half of global energy consumption and is responsible for more than 40% of energy-related CO2 emissions, according to Irena.

There are different types of heat pumps: There are a variety of heat pump systems depending on what type of source it pulls its heat from. Air-to-air heat pumps are the most common, where the heat pump exchanges the heat between the air around you and the air outside, the New York Times writes. A geothermal heat pump can draw heat from the ground, which would require excavating and drilling a well near the system. A residential building under construction in New York will power its heat pumping system with geothermal energy, reducing emissions by 53%. Air-to-water units are also relatively common, led by demand for heat pump water heaters compatible with radiators and underfloor heating systems, the IEA explains. This may become an option regionally in the future as well, as some countries including the UAE begin to explore geothermal projects. Another source could be leftover heat from industrial processes in a waste heat recovery process that stops low-utility heat from escaping factory furnaces.

And there’s regional interest: American technology and manufacturing company Dalrada Financial Corporation will “focus on the installation and provision of ongoing support services for Dalrada’s range of high-efficiency commercial heat pumps throughout the MENA region,” through its subsidiary Dalrada Technologies Morocco established last month, Morocco World News reported. The subsidiary’s main office will be located in Fez, and will function as an operational and training hub, eventually becoming a building and manufacturing center for Dalrada heat pumps in Morocco, the outlet explains.

Plans are already underway in Morocco: Fez-based Crown Glory Holding partnered with Dalrada Technology Spain to build and install as many as 4.5k energy efficient heat pumps by 2030, according to a statement published last week. At least 150 of the commercial heat pumps are expected to be installed and operational within the first 12 months starting from October of this year, the statement added. Under the agreement, Crown Glory Holding is given exclusive distribution of Dalrada heat pumps in Africa and select neighboring countries, increasing the potential of the company to create its building and manufacturing center for Dalrada heat pumps in Morocco.

Heat pumps could be easily integrated into HVAC systems in KSA + UAE: Heat pumps are versatile when it comes to retrofits into existing Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (HVAC) systems, NYT writes. Saudi Arabia’s Zamil Air Conditioners Company partnered with Samsung Electronics earlier this year to manufacture, install, maintain and operate HVAC systems with VRF technology — a common heat pumping system — in the kingdom. A green retrofit movement is also underway in the UAE, where 30k buildings across Dubai will be upgraded before the end of 2030 in efforts to reduce energy demand by 30%. Last year, Mubadala-backed Strata partnered with two Germany-based advanced technology companies to develop the world's most energy-efficient residential AC system in the UAE.

And demand will likely increase: Unstable weather conditions including a colder than predicted spring in 2019, heavy dust storms in 2022, increased heat waves and droughts means more time spent indoors, and a bigger reliance on cooling and heating systems. Heat pumps could potentially reduce global CO2 emissions by at least 500 mn tons by 2030, equivalent to the annual emissions of all the cars in Europe, according to the IEA.

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