TODAY: Saudi Arabia’s IsDB earmarks USD 403 mn for Egypt and Central Asia
Good morning, ladies and gents. It’s a busy start to the week with a lot of ground to cover, so let’s dive right in.
THE BIG CLIMATE STORY- Saudi Arabia’s Islamic Development Bank will provide c. USD 403 mn for three projects in Egypt, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan with a bulk of the financing going towards Egypt’s 660 km first phase of the Sokhna-Alexandria electric high-speed rail line.
^^We have all the details on this story and more in the news well, below.
THE BIG CLIMATE STORY OUTSIDE THE REGION- US unveils strict EV tax credit rules: The US Treasury Department laid out subsidy criteria for the USD 7.5k tax credits of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) on Friday — aimed at lowering consumer costs and strengthening US manufacturing and supply chains — that will leave most automakers ineligible for the IRA’s full EV subsidy. The new guidance — which will come into effect on 18 April — stipulates that 50% of net EV battery components’ value and 40% of rare earth values be sourced in the US or from freetrade partners to qualify for the full USD 7.5k subsidy. The US will up its target to source EV minerals domestically or from freetrade allies 10% each year, eventually doubling the quota by 2027 to 80%. Automakers including Tesla — which uses Chinese batteries — have already begun informing their customers their models would not qualify for the full tax credits, and that their lineups would consequently be affected. The full list of EVs eligible for the tax credits is due to be published in coming weeks.
What does this mean for us? It could pave the way for minerals exports from the region: The subsidy criteria for the tax credits give room for battery minerals sourced from US freetrade partners including Bahrain, Jordan, Morocco, and Oman, according to the US Treasury statement.
The story made headlines in the international press over the weekend: New York Times | Bloomberg | Financial Times | Reuters | Associated Press
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OVER IN COPLAND– Could we see a loss and damage fund by November? The landmark loss and damage fund agreed during COP27 could be finalized and set in place by the time COP28 takes place in the UAE in November, Egypt’s lead climate negotiator Amb. Mohamed Nasr said Thursday, according to Reuters. His statements came during a press briefing after the conclusion of the first meeting of the COP transitional committee in Luxor meant to iron out details related to the fund. The committee will meet again on 24-27 May, 29 August-1 September, and 17-20 October, with an additional two workshops planned on 29 and 30 April in Bonn and 22-23 July in Bangkok.
WATCH THIS SPACE #1- EU angles for a higher share of renewable energy use by 2030: The EU is aiming to raise renewables’ share of its energy mix to 42.5% by 2030 — up from a current 32% — with the potential to reach 45% after the bloc signed a provisional agreement for more ambitious climate action last Thursday, Reuters reports. The agreement breaks down targets for the different sectors, with the transport sector expected to reach a 29% share of renewable energy and the industrial sector reaching a 42% renewable energy share by 2030. The agreement is yet to be approved by the EU Parliament and countries to become law, the newswire notes. The 27 EU member states currently face major discrepancies between their renewables consumption, with Sweden for example leading with a 63% renewables share, compared with the Netherlands, where renewables make up less than 13% of its energy mix.
This could translate to big regional hydrogen exports: Some European nations are expected to turn to MENA and the GCC in a bid to secure green and blue hydrogen imports to fulfill the EU’s 2030 renewable energy targets, an extensive study conducted by Deloitte Belgium Energy for the EU’s Clean Hydrogen Partnership found. The study sees Belgium, Netherlands, Denmark, and North of Germany relying on imports from Morocco, Egypt, Algeria, Oman, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar to cover between 40% and 80% of total hydrogen consumption.
Some are already in play: Several preliminary agreements for green hydrogen have been signed between a number of MENA countries and European counterparts. Oman signed agreements with companies from Belgium, the Netherlands, the UK, Japan, Singapore, and Germany last month for the establishment of green hydrogen production plants in the country. Egypt also signed a spate of agreements last year for the manufacture of green hydrogen and its derivatives, including one with Germany’s DAI. Similarly, Qatar is also going big on hydrogen production, with QatarEnergy’s renewables arm signing agreements for a USD 1 bn blue ammonia plant, which Germany’s ThyssenKrupp AG is helping build. Morocco is also joining the green hydrogen spree in the region, with the country receiving EUR 38 mn from Germany to finance its first green hydrogen plant.
Saudi Arabia in particular has big EU export targets: KSA’s Acwa Power signed an MoU with Austrian utilities firm Verbund in January to explore the establishment of green hydrogen plants in MENA, with an eye on exporting the green fuels to Austria and Central Europe. 100% of the green hydrogen produced in the USD 8.5 bn mega green hydrogen plant in Neom will be also available for export, with project co-developer US-based Air Products looking to earmark a sizable portion of Neom’s green fuels for Germany. Greece has also been exploring green hydrogen imports from Saudi’s Neom, with plans to lay a cable connecting Saudi to Europe.
WATCH THIS SPACE #2- PIF aims to quadruple its portfolio by 2030: KSA’s sovereign wealth fund the Public Investment Fund (PIF) aims to raise the value of its assets under management to between USD 2-3 tn by 2030, SPA reported, citing statements by PIF governor Yasir Al Rumayyan during the The Global Priority Summit in Miami on Friday. PIF currently manages assets worth USD 650 bn, with plans to raise it to USD 1 tn by the end of 2025.
And renewables are a big draw: The PIF is the world’s biggest investor in renewable energy and green hydrogen under the country’s target of net zero emissions by 2050, Al Rumayyan said. He added that Saudi Arabia was the least energy emitting country globally with 10.5 grams of carbon in comparison with other energy producers who release up to 25 kg of carbon.
WATCH THIS SPACE #3- Months later, the UK is still mulling over Morocco’s Xlinks project: The UK government is studying “without commitment” the viability of the USD 18 bn 10.5 GW Morocco-UK Xlinks renewables project, according to the Powering Up Britain – Energy Security policy paper released last week. Progress on the project — which would see 3.6 GW of clean energy generated in Morocco transported to the UK — has been “frustratingly slow,” Xlinks Executive Chairman David Lewis said last year, adding the company would divert the power produced elsewhere if the UK does not commit to financing the project soon.
REFRESHER- The Xlinks renewable energy project in Morocco is set to generate 10.5 GW of solar and wind energy once operational. Some 3.6 GW of electricity would make its way to the UK through four sub-sea cables stretching 3.8k km — potentially the world’s longest undersea electric cable connection. When completed, it is expected to supply 8% of the UK’s electricity needs. The project could be completed by 2030 if the UK delivers an assurance this year that consumers will pay a fixed price of GBP 48 per MWh for the power delivered, Lewis said in an interview with The Times last year.
WATCH THIS SPACE #4- Emerging markets are still in play for clean energy investors: Fixed electricity prices, long term supply contracts, and risk ins. will spur renewables developments in emerging markets, The Wall Street Journal quotes panelists as saying at a conference organized by Global Private Capital Association in New York last week. Although an increase in government incentives in developed countries like the US’ Inflation Reduction Act may steer a chunk of investments away from emerging markets, long term supply agreements for renewables plants and fixed electricity prices pegged to the USD should drive significant foreign investments to developing markets, co-founder and Managing Partner at Emirati firm Alcazar Energy Daniel Calderon and Actis Partner Neil Brown said.
Good news for the region: Egypt and Jordan are named as emerging economies with significant clean energy production potential and the regulations in place to back it up, enabling long term revenue-building visibility for investors, Brown says. In spite of heftier electricity price tags in some developing countries, long term power purchase agreements ensure profitability for developers in Southern Mediterranean markets like Egypt and in Eastern European countries, according to Calderon, who said Alcazar is seeking to fill an investment gap in emerging markets’ renewables sector. Alcazar already proposed to build a green ammonia facility in Egypt and is also eyeing new renewables projects in partnership with Egypt-based construction firm Madkour Group.
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