Almost all growth in electricity demand in the next three years will be covered by low-emissions sources and nuclear power, the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts in a new report (pdf). Global electricity demand is expected to grow at an average annual clip of 3% through to 2025, with over 70% of demand increase coming from Asia, while CO2 emissions are likely to remain the same between 2022 and 2025. IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said that renewables and nuclear power will meet most of the additional appetite, suggesting the world is close to a tipping point for power sector emissions.

The Middle East’s appetite for gas-fueled generation isn’t waning: Renewables will represent 35% of the global power mix in 2025 — a six percentage point increase from 2022 — and while the EU is seeing a decrease in natural gas-dependent power generation, there is still significant growth in gas-dependency in the Middle East. Gas accounted for 72% of electricity generation in the region in 2022 and is expected to rise to 77% in 2025. Similarly, declines in coal-fired power generation in Europe and the Americas are offset by increased coal usage in the Asia-Pacific region, even as nuclear power deployment rises in the latter. Emissions from Europe’s power generation are expected to decrease by c.10% annually until 2025.

The upside? The region’s CO2 intensity will decrease: Oil’s share of the region’s energy mix is expected to decrease to 14% from 21%, while coal is expected to drop to less than 0.3% from 1% — largely attributed to the conversion of the UAE’s Hassyan power plant from coal to gas and Israel’s decision to phase out coal by 2025. Nuclear power generation will almost double to account for 3.5% of the power mix between 2022 and 2025, with the expectation that it will reach 50 TW by 2025 — partly attributable to the UAE’s Barakah nuclear plant reaching full capacity in that time frame.

And the region’s renewable power generation will increase by half: Renewable power — led by solar developments in Saudi Arabia, Israel, Oman, and the UAE — will increase by 50% between 2023 and 2025, in spite of slow renewables expansion in other countries. Power generation emissions will fall by 2% in the forecast period with the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Israel seeing the largest emission declines due to decreased oil-fired generation and increased renewables and nuclear energy.

Countries across MENA and the GCC will experience a growth in electricity demand: Kuwait and Morocco’s electricity consumption is expected to grow at 2% annually from 2023-2025. In Qatar, demand is expected to grow by 3% while Jordan and Oman will both see a 2.6% increase in demand. Egypt’s demand for electricity is expected to increase 2.4% annually in the forecast period. Tunisia (3%) and Algeria (5%) top the list with the highest expected increase in demand between 2023 and 2025.

But UAE + Saudi will see demand growing at a softer pace: Saudi Arabia’s demand is expected to increase by 1% between 2023 and 2025 — a slower pace than the 2% recorded in 2022 — while forecasted electricity demand growth in the UAE is 2%, down from 3% in 2022. In the UAE, nuclear energy will lead alternative energy generation, while gas will make up 64% of the energy mix, renewables will make up 10%, and nuclear energy 26% by 2025.

The region is engaging in a renewables race: Renewable power generation in Kuwait accounted for just 0.3% but the country has plans to add 5 GW of solar capacity by 2030. In Israel, renewables are expected to reach 15% of the generation mix with coal-powered generation dropping to zero. Qatar expects solar energy to represent 4% of the mix by 2025 and Oman plans to generate 39% of its energy needs from renewables by 2040. Jordan aims to fulfill 50% of its energy needs from renewables by 2030 and announced plans last month to build small nuclear reactors for electricity production and water desalination

And North Africa wants to invest in renewables and export surplus: Egypt has 3.1 GW of installed wind and solar capacity, 2.8 GW of hydropower and 2.8 GW of planned renewable capacity being commissioned at the end of this year and plans to export electricity surplus to the Eastern Mediterranean, fulfilling local demand with diesel and renewables instead. Algeria is developing 15 GW of renewables’ capacity by 2035, with plans to export surplus to North Africa and Southern Europe.