How Morocco, KSA, Egypt, and Oman — MENA’s big green hydrogen players — are attracting investment and where bottlenecks remain: North Africa could become the top global producer of green hydrogen, aided by abundant solar and wind power, lots of uninhabited land, and its existing pipeline networks, US think tank Atlantic Council argued recently. MENA is often hailed as a potential green hydrogen hub, with Morocco, Egypt, KSA and Oman having the most advanced hydrogen strategies, according to a 2022 IRENA report (pdf). So what are these countries doing to attract investment and what could slow things down?

Morocco and KSA are among the most promising producers globally: Morocco and KSA are among five countries best placed to become major clean hydrogen producers by 2050, IRENA notes. Morocco could capture up to 4% of the global market for green hydrogen and its derivatives by 2030, according to Swiss foundation Green Hydrogen Organization (GHO).

Egypt is another potential hub: Africa could produce 50 mn tons of green hydrogen per year by 2035, by harnessing renewable energy from three hubs: Morocco and Mauritania, Egypt, and South Africa and Namibia, according to a recent report (pdf) supported by the European Investment Bank (EIB). By 2035, Egypt could produce 20 mn tons of green hydrogen per year, with 12.5 mn tons exported, while Mauritania could produce 12.5 mn tons of green hydrogen per year, with 7.5 mn tons exported, the report predicts.

All four countries are developing national hydrogen strategies:

Egypt: Egypt’s low-carbon hydrogen strategy, unveiled at COP27, should ultimately cover the whole hydrogen value chain — supply, demand, and infrastructure — though details have been scarce so far. In practice, the government has called for export-focused projects ahead of projects aimed at local energy offtakers.

Morocco: Morocco’s hydrogen roadmap (pdf), issued in 2021, focuses on market and demand (green hydrogen export and storage); technology (aiming at cost reduction and local industrial integration; and investment. In the short-term (2020-2030), it’s planning local use and export to targeted markets. Medium-term (2030-2040), it’s targeting lower production costs and possible usage in Morocco’s electricity sector. Long-term (2040-2050), green hydrogen could be used in residential heat production and mobility — including for heavy vehicles and aviation.

KSA: In 2022, KSA was developing a national hydrogen strategy, outlining its production, export and domestic uses. This included “essential aspects” of the production process for green and blue hydrogen, eyeing transportation of hydrogen for domestic use and its integration into products for export.

Oman: Oman’s strategy, announced in October, invites project developers to produce green hydrogen for export, convert it to ammonia or methanol, or use it to power “hard-to-abate” industries.

Major projects are in the pipeline: Egypt signed framework agreements for green hydrogen and ammonia plants worth USD 83 bn at COP27 last November. KSA is launching a USD 5 bn project in NEOM — potentially the world’s largest utility-scale green hydrogen facility, while Morocco recently received EUR 38 mn from Germany to finance its first plant, amid a flurry of private sector interest. Out of the USD 180 bn worth of regional projects that had been announced as of October 2022, USD 63.8 bn worth were in Egypt, USD 48.9 bn in Oman, USD 16.85 bn in Morocco, USD 10.5 bn in KSA, and USD 10.3 bn in the UAE.

And plans to spur investment, like upping renewables use and partnerships: Morocco is aiming for renewables to form a 52% share of its energy mix by 2030, 70% by 2040 and 80% by 2050. Egypt and Morocco are both members of the African Green Hydrogen Alliance, launched in May 2022 to encourage collaboration on everything from regulation to capacity building, financing and certification.

For GCC economies, blue hydrogen export has already begun: Saudi Aramco is earmarking “multiple bns of USD” to become a major blue hydrogen exporter and plans to begin selling blue ammonia to Asia by 2027. Having sold several test shipments of blue ammonia to Japan in 2021 the UAE sent its first low-carbon ammonia shipment to Europe in September.

They’re gearing up for green to follow: Oman aims to become a “large-scale exporter” of green hydrogen or green ammonia, the IRENA report notes. And South Korea plans to import green hydrogen from the UAE by 2027, its government announced in January.

Existing fossil fuel infrastructure could help: Countries that repurpose existing pipeline infrastructure designed for natgas and liquified petroleum gas to carry hydrogen will have a distinct advantage in the notoriously-challenging field of hydrogen transportation, notes Atlantic Council. Oman is already looking into this, we’ve noted previously.

But bottlenecks still need to be overcome to get this industry off the ground:

Water scarcity: Green hydrogen production is a water-intensive process. And because globally some 70% of planned electrolyzer projects are in water-stressed regions, over 85% of planned green hydrogen projects may need to use desalination — a fossil fuel-reliant process that increases production costs — to get fresh water for production, the IRENA report notes.

In-country infrastructure and energy trade routes — which impact supply and demand: Factors affecting a country’s ability to effectively produce green hydrogen include existing infrastructure (which determines the ease of transport by sea or pipeline), the cost of capital, access to key electrolyzer technology, supportive national and international policy frameworks, and its investment climate, the IRENA report notes. With many net importers now eyeing green hydrogen export, existing energy trade systems could also be in for a radical shake-up — meaning initial supply could well exceed global demand, it adds.

The cost of tech: Once green hydrogen production falls below USD 2/KG, it will be extremely cost competitive, the EIB report notes. But as of last year, green hydrogen cost some USD 5-6/KG to produce, while gray hydrogen cost less than USD 2/KG.

And certification for export to Europe: The need to prove the green credentials of any green hydrogen destined for Europe — by tracing and certifying that it was produced by new renewable energy sources — is likely to prove an impediment to export, at least in the short-term.